Doesn’t it seem reasonable that some threshold percentage should be crossed?
I put that question to a couple of pros in their fields last week, after it became obvious that — whether the eventual winner of Illinois’ Republican Party gubernatorial primary is BILL BRADY or KIRK DILLARD — the GOP nominee for state government’s top office will have gotten only about 20 percent of the vote among the seven names on the ballot.
DAVID YEPSEN, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, and former Gov. JIM EDGAR both were in Springfield to give post-primary analysis at a luncheon.
Yepsen, who spent many years as chief political reporter at the Des Moines Register, told me many states have threshold percentages. It’s 35 percent in Iowa. He said the primaries for statewide offices in that state — as opposed to Iowa’s famous caucuses for presidential candidates — come in June. If no candidate gets 35 percent of the vote, a state party convention chooses the nominee.
“It seems to work there,” he said, “and they do occasionally have some that go to convention.”
Edgar likes the threshold idea, but he’d prefer that the final decision be made in a quick runoff election, possibly held two weeks after the first primary.
“I’m not against the party leaders having a lot of say, ’cause sometimes I think the smoke-filled room does a pretty good job,” Edgar said. “But I do think in this state … you’d have trouble saying we’re going to take that decision away from the voters.”
Edgar also said he thinks lieutenant governor candidates should be picked by the nominee for governor, then ratified at a state convention. The ratification process would provide a “check and balance,” he said, and “also gives you something worthwhile to do at the state convention.”
Other states vary in how they pick nominees for state offices. According to the Council of State Governments, in Michigan, for example, gubernatorial candidates are selected via primary, but the lieutenant governor is selected in conventions. Secretary of state and attorney general candidates there are picked by party conventions.
Yepsen called the way Illinois Democrats and Republicans choose lieutenant governor candidates “a bullet in a chamber (of) both parties.”
Cahnman’s idea
Meanwhile, Springfield Ward 5 Ald. SAM CAHNMAN reminds us that, back in 1986, after two followers of political extremist LYNDON LaROUCHE were nominated on the Democratic ballot — MARK FAIRCHILD for lieutenant governor and JANICE HART for secretary of state — he proposed a solution. He thought the governor and lieutenant governor candidates should be paired on the primary election ticket.
At the time, Cahnman was running for a state Senate seat. He lost to then-Sen. JOHN DAVIDSON, R-Springfield.
Davidson, by the way, is looking good. He was at Sangamon County GOP headquarters recently as the organization announced endorsements of candidates, including Dillard for governor.
Perils of polling
In years past, a handful of media outlets across Illinois would regularly contract with pollsters to track where election contests stood in the months and weeks leading up to an election. But, probably as a result of tough economic times, there’s been markedly less of that.
As a result, polls done in the governor’s race for the Chicago Tribune and its TV partner, WGN, might have gotten even more focus than usual this year. Some independent polling companies and campaigns also released numbers, but the Trib poll — which showed Brady trailing badly — got a lot of attention.
It got attention from Edgar during his visit to Springfield, too.
“I’ve always thought polling’s dangerous in primaries,” Edgar said. “If the Tribune continues to poll, they need to get a new pollster.”
Edgar said he thought the firm’s sample of Republican voters included just 25 percent from downstate. About half of actual GOP votes came from that area, he said.
But NICK PANAGAKIS, president of the Trib’s polling firm, Market Shares Corp. of Arlington Heights, said the polls presented an accurate picture when they were taken. He said the dynamics of the GOP race changed toward the end. And he said the poll’s results in other races were close to Election Day totals, including in the Democratic gubernatorial contest.
Panagakis also disputed Edgar’s criticism of the sample. In getting responses from Democrats, 26 percent were from outside the six-county Chicago region. On the Republican side, however, 45 percent were from downstate.
A Dec. 13 poll published in the Trib showed JIM RYAN with 26 percent support, ANDY McKENNA with 12 percent, Brady with 10 percent and Dillard with 9 percent. The follow-up, published Jan. 24 based on interviews conducted Jan. 16-20, had McKenna at 19, Ryan at 18, Dillard at 14 and Brady at 9. That was from a sample of 592 registered GOP voters. The margin of error was reported at 4 percentage points.
Back in 1998, Democratic gubernatorial candidate GLENN POSHARD said that polls — including the Trib’s — that predicted a landslide win for Republican GEORGE RYAN, “just killed us,” by deflating the morale of Democrats and making it hard to raise money.
Panagakis stood by his results then as well, saying Democrats nationwide gained ground in the final days of that election season. That year, a poll done for The State Journal-Register and other newspapers had Ryan 11 points up about a week before the election. The Market Shares poll several days earlier had Ryan 15 points up.
Ryan beat Poshard by less than 4 percentage points.
Yepsen said he didn’t want to be critical of any particular newspaper because, when he was a reporter, “I’ve certainly sinned like this … too.” But he said Tuesday’s primary showed again that “elections are late-breaking things.” Polls done weeks in advance are worthless, he said.
“If you’re not going to stay in the field right up till probably the day before the election, maybe even put a poll on election day morning and do stuff online, you probably ought to think about whether you’re wasting your money,” Yepsen said.
New job, move to union
Something interesting recently happened in the Illinois Department on Aging.
ELTON ARRINDELL, 40, who had been special assistant to Director Charles Johnson, got a different job — one that became part of a union bargaining unit only a couple days after he was chosen.
Arrindell had been paid $82,536 annually in the old job. Taking the new job was considered a voluntary reduction, according to department spokeswoman KIMBERLY PARKER, but the new salary was initially the same, though still subject to negotiations because of the union status.
Arrindell had been a senior public service administrator; the new job lists him as a public service administrator.
The new job, in the division of finance and administration, was posted Oct. 6, Parker said. Of the 27 people who applied, Arrindell was among six interviewed.
“Mr. Arrindell had the highest overall score after a series of Rutan interviews,” Parker said via e-mail. He has a master’s degree, is working on a doctorate in public administration, and has “many years of management experience,” “great people skills” and has been with the department more than nine years.
Arrindell was offered the new job Nov. 16. The position became part of an American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees unit Nov. 18.
Arrindell started in the new job Dec. 16, Parker said. However, as of Feb. 1, he is on temporary assignment to assist the director, she said.
“I’ve decided to make a change just for personal and family reasons,” Arrindell told me.
“I’m not a political appointee,” he said. He also noted that lots of positions that could be considered senior staff have been moving to union ranks in recent years.
Source: SJ-R.com
